Vol. 14 No. 1 (2026): Journal of Strategic Studies, Summer 2026
Articles

Fragmented Global Nuclear Order: Modi’s Calculated Irrationality, and Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures Between India and Pakistan

  • Rizwan Zeb
Rizwan Zeb
Rizwan Zeb (PhD) is Visiting Research Fellow at the BNU Center for Policy Research at the Beaconhouse National University Lahore, Pakistan. He is member of the Working group on International Measures for Compliance to Nuclear Disarmament Regimes at the Uppsala University’s Alva Myrdal Centre for Nuclear Disarmament and of Emerging Technologies & AI Research Center (ETAI), Khazar University and Associate Editor, Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs (Sage).
Published June 30, 2026
How to Cite
Rizwan Zeb. (2026). Fragmented Global Nuclear Order: Modi’s Calculated Irrationality, and Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures Between India and Pakistan. CISS Insight Journal, 14(1). Retrieved from https://journal.ciss.org.pk/index.php/ciss-insight/article/view/445
Copyright (c) 2026 Center for International Strategic Studies

Abstract

The expiry of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) effectively ended the traditional global nuclear order. This fragmentation of the nuclear order is marked by new challenges in the form of artificial intelligence (AI), cyber capabilities, and autonomous systems in the global and regional nuclear landscape. The South Asian nuclear dyad is a prime example of this complexity as a region with a poor record of nuclear risk reduction and confidence-building measures (CBMs). Since 2014, India has been ruled by a Hindutva-motivated Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led regime that seems to demonstrate a tendency to use war and nuclear weapons to achieve political ends, posing a grave threat to Pakistan’s national security. This paper aims to understand the history and historicity of the global nuclear order, thereby situating the South Asian nuclear dyad within it. It explores how India and Pakistan developed certain risk reduction measures and CBMs. The paper also addresses how the regime led by Narendra Modi is inclined to risk-taking behavior, which adversely affects strategic stability between India and Pakistan and the challenges posed by the emerging technologies, AI, and enhanced cyber capabilities have complicated the already troubled strategic stability in the region. The paper concludes by highlighting the need for a peace oriented partnership between India and Pakistan on regional strategic stability.