Iran’s Nuclear Program: Collapse of JCPOA and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Efforts

Abstract

The crisis surrounding Iran’s nuclear program has increasingly shifted from diplomatic management towards military confrontation, raising critical questions about the durability of negotiated nuclear restraint arrangements. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) represented one of the most comprehensive diplomatic efforts to address concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear activities through limits on its enrichment activities and reciprocal sanctions relief. However, the unilateral withdrawal of the United States (US) from the agreement in 2018, followed by the reimposition of extensive economic sanctions, fundamentally complicated the Iranian nuclear dispute. This decision undermined the credibility of multilateral diplomacy, eroded confidence in negotiated commitments, and generated a deep trust deficit between Iran and Western powers. Against this backdrop, tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program have increasingly been managed through coercive pressure and the use of force, as evidenced by the twelve-day US-Israel war on Iran in June 2025, as well as the recent war of 2026. The collapse of the JCPOA framework has, therefore, transformed a previously negotiated nuclear issue into a broader strategic crisis with significant implications for regional security and global nuclear non-proliferation efforts. This article argues that the erosion of diplomatic mechanisms designed to manage Iran’s nuclear program risks reinforcing perceptions within Iran that nuclear restraint does not guarantee security or protection from external pressure. Under conditions of sustained confrontation and strategic uncertainty, debates within Iran regarding the costs and benefits of continued adherence to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) may intensify. The article examines whether the breakdown of the JCPOA and the military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities could ultimately incentivize Tehran to reconsider its nuclear posture and develop deterrence capabilities as a means of ensuring regime survival. This could lead to a domino effect of nuclear proliferation in the region and across the globe, further undermining the NPT. The study highlights how the failure of diplomacy in favor of the use of military force can reshape proliferation incentives and complicate efforts to manage nuclear risks in an increasingly fragmented global nuclear order.