Impact of Global Arms Control Crisis on Arms Restraint in South Asia

Abstract

The global arms control framework has eroded significantly, as landmark treaties have collapsed under intensifying great-power competition. This erosion has directly impacted South Asia, where the normative standards that once encouraged strategic restraint have considerably weakened. While India and Pakistan have never concluded formal bilateral arms control agreements, global arms control initiatives have historically established norms that indirectly shaped regional strategic behavior. India’s persistent reluctance to engage in regional arms control initiatives has been the principal driver of declining strategic stability in South Asia. New Delhi has consistently resisted bilateral confidence-building measures (CBMs) and nuclear risk-reduction arrangements, foreclosing the possibility of a negotiated regional security architecture. In contrast, Pakistan has demonstrated consistent restraint by maintaining a policy of credible minimum deterrence (CMD) without engaging in destabilizing arms racing behavior. Meanwhile, India has pursued rapid and accelerating military modernization across both nuclear and conventional domains, dramatically widening the asymmetry between the two states. The operationalization of sea-based deterrents, the development of advanced delivery systems, and the acquisition of precision conventional capabilities have compounded Pakistan’s security challenges. The absence of any arms control framework to manage these developments poses a growing threat to strategic stability in South Asia, increasing risks of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation. Against this backdrop, the paper examines the impact of the global arms control crisis on arms restraint in South Asia and offers practical policy recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders that can be adopted by both states to establish restraint mechanisms, ultimately ensuring regional strategic stability.