Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban after 2021: A “Security Dilemma”?

Abstract

Since the Afghan Taliban’s return to power in 2021, relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government have deteriorated despite earlier expectations of improved cooperation. Islamabad anticipated that a friendly regime in Kabul would help curb cross-border militancy and contribute to regional stability. Instead, persistent security challenges and militant violence have deepened mistrust. Pakistan’s border management and counterterrorism measures are perceived by the Taliban as coercive, while the Taliban’s continued support of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is viewed in Islamabad as a direct security threat. Beyond ideological affinity, the TTP also holds instrumental value for the Taliban in terms of internal cohesion and leverage, complicating efforts to address Pakistan’s concerns. Based on the above premise, this paper examines the evolving Pakistan–Taliban relationship between 2021 and 2025, and argues that the relationship is marked by a security dilemma between a sovereign state and a quasi-state authority. The paper further highlights how misperception, limited trust, and divergent understandings of security sustain this dynamic. The paper concludes by discussing policy-relevant implications for Pakistan and regional stability.