Vol. 4 No. 4 (2016): CISS Insight Quarterly Journal, Dec 2016

Global Strategic Forecast 2017

Dr. Afsah Qazi
Assistant Professor at Department of International Relations, National Defense University
Saima Aman Sial
Senior Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS)
Published December 28, 2016
How to Cite
Dr. Afsah Qazi, & Saima Aman Sial. (2016). Global Strategic Forecast 2017 . CISS Insight Journal, 4(4), P 17 - 29. Retrieved from https://journal.ciss.org.pk/index.php/ciss-insight/article/view/65


If one were to assess what the global strategic environment may look like in 2017, a number of factors will play an important role. Elections due in several European states, in which right wing parties may form governments, will be an influential factor in determining the fate of European Union; against the background of Brexit. However, the most important defining variable of such an assessment would be the course that the US is likely to take under the President Donald Trump. This factor would matter in any case, as adjustments in the conduct of foreign policy would have been inevitable with a new administration in Washington. However, with Trump’s election to the office, this variable has become more significant mainly because of the ambiguities created by his radical campaign rhetoric, some of which has started to manifest itself in the worst possible ways. Of all the areas, those in which Trump’s viewpoint is largely contrasting with that of the outgoing administration are of great significance, as drastic shifts in US foreign policy can have global implications. Most important would be the ways in which the US’ equation with major powers will get formulated, particularly the course that USRussia and US-China relations might take. Moreover, how the Trump administration decides to deal with the existing and potential conflict zones in general and with Middle East and South Asia in particular will be of great importance. Lastly, the course that the debate on global issues such as nuclear non-proliferation and climate change might take under the new administration will be an important determining factor in shaping the global order.