Saudi-Iran Rapprochement and China’s Growing Presence in the Middle East

Abstract

The Saudi-Iran rapprochement, brokered by China in March 2023, caught the world off guard and represents a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics. The objective of this paper is to critically examine the Riyadh and Tehran reconciliation process and its long-term sustainability. The paper further analyzes the roles of China and the US in the Saudi-Iran rapprochement, while tracing the evolution of Saudi-Iranian relations since 1979. Furthermore, the paper explores China's increasing political presence and economic footprint in the Middle East, assessing the prospects of China overtaking the US as a dominant player in the region. In evaluating the sustainability of the rapprochement, this paper investigates potential spoilers that could increase mistrust and hinder the peace process between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It concludes that the Saudi-Iran rapprochement can endure if both states continue to cooperate and manage conflicts rationally, effectively defeating the potential roles of spoilers.