US Presence in Afghanistan Post-2014: Assessment and Implication for Pakistan’s Defense Policy

Abstract

Major Powers and the international community will be closely watching the developments in Afghanistan as US led international forces plan for a drawdown after thirteen years of military engagements in the year 2014. At the regional level, considerable doubts exist within Afghanistan’s neighbors and near neighbors regarding the stability in Afghanistan, its future political dispensation and more importantly about how the long term presence of “residual” United States forces will shape Afghanistan’s regional behavior after 2014.

In the backdrop of limited drawdown of US led international forces from Afghanistan in 2014, preserving and maximization of power under a complex and uncertain environment will be the prime considerations of regional states including Pakistan. Security dilemma theorizes the state’s behavior under the conditions of competition and uneven distribution of power that security maximization of one state leads to the decrease in security for other states. Security dilemma however does not exist everywhere despite anarchic system of international relations e.g. between Canada and United States, between Japan and United States etc.